The average growth in global fossil CO2 emissions peaked at around 3% per year during the 2000s, driven by the rapid growth in emissions in China. Over the last decade, however, this average growth rate has slowed to 0.6% annually.
Although emissions are growing at a slower pace, we are still far from the sharp reductions needed to meet climate goals of the Paris Agreement.
Across the group of developed countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), fossil CO2 emissions peaked in around 2005 and have since been declining at about 1% per year. Over the last 10 years, 22 countries significantly cut emissions whilst their economies grew. Together, these countries have accounted for around 23% of global fossil CO₂ emissions over the last decade.
In contrast, developing countries or non-OECD are still seeing emission increases, though at a slower rate, below 2% per year over the past 10 years compared to nearly 5% over the previous decade (2004_2013). China’s emission growth slowed from 7.5% (2004-2013) to nearly 2% in the last decade.
Thanks to climate policies, technology, shifts from coal to gas and a growth in renewable energies, global emissions growth has slowed. However, the world continues to emit more fossil CO₂ each year, far from the deep and sustained reductions needed to achieve the targets set by the Paris Agreement.
At the GCB we calculate the “remaining carbon budget” – the maximum CO₂ we can emit while staying within certain temperature limits. As of January 2025, this budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C, and 2°C is estimated to allow for emissions of 235, 585, 1110 billion tons of CO₂, respectively. With today’s emission levels, we have roughly 6, 14, and 27 years remaining for these thresholds.
Read more about how this was calculated in the full report.
Meeting the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 would mean reducing emissions by about 1.6 billion tons of CO₂ every year – similar to the reduction in emissions observed in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This pace would align with the 1.7°C target but falls short of the 1.5°C goal. Even achieving net-zero by 2040 would exceed the 1.5°C limit unless global emissions became “net negative” (we absorb more CO₂ than we release) after 2040.