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Are global emissions on track to meet climate goals?
The average growth in global fossil CO₂ emissions peaked at around 3 % per year during the 2000s, driven by the rapid growth in emissions in China. Over the last decade, however, this average growth rate has slowed to 0.8% annually.
Fossil CO₂ emissions are growing at a slower pace now, thanks to climate policies, technology, shifts from coal to gas and a growth in renewables. However, the world continues to emit more fossil CO₂ each year.
We are still far from the sharp and sustained reductions needed to meet climate goals of the Paris Agreement.
Across the group of developed countries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), fossil CO2 emissions peaked in around 2005 and have since been declining at about 1.5% per year for the decade 2015-2024. Developing countries or non-OECD are still seeing emission increases, though at a slower rate, to just over 2% per year over the past 10 years compared to nearly 4.6% over the previous decade (2005-2014). China’s emission growth slowed from 6.7% (2005-2014) to nearly 2.5% in the last decade.
Over the last 10 years, 35 countries significantly cut fossil CO2 emissions whilst their economies grew. Together, these countries have accounted for around 27% of global fossil CO₂ emissions over the last decade. For comparison, over the previous decade (2005-2014) only 18 countries showed cuts in emissions whilst growing their economies. These 18 countries accounted for around 20% of the global fossil CO2 emissions.
Emissions at country level
China’s emissions in 2025 are projected to increase by 0.4% – growing more slowly than in recent years, due to a moderate growth in energy consumption combined with an extraordinary growth in renewable energy.
India’s emissions are projected to increase by 1.4% – also slower than recent trends.An early monsoon reduced cooling requirements in the hottest months. Combined with strong growth in renewables, this led to very low growth in coal consumption.
Emissions are projected to grow in the USA (+1.9%) and the European Union (0.4%) in 2025. Emissions in these regions have declined in recent years, but colder weather and other factors led to an increase in 2025.
Projected emissions in Japan, provided this year for the first time, are down 2.2% in line with recent trends.
Emissions for the rest of the world are projected to increase by 1.1%.
The remaining carbon budget
At the GCB we calculate the “remaining carbon budget” – the maximum CO₂ we can emit while staying within certain temperature limits. As of January 2026, this budget for limiting global warming to 1.5°C, 1.7°C, and 2°C is estimated to allow for emissions of 170, 525, 1055 billion tons of CO₂, respectively. With today’s emission levels, we have roughly 4, 12, and 25 years remaining for these thresholds.
Read more about how this was calculated in the full report.
Meeting the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 would mean reducing emissions by about 1.7 billion tons of CO₂ every year – similar to the reduction in emissions observed in 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic. This pace would align with the 1.7°C target but falls short of the 1.5°C goal. Even achieving net-zero by 2040 would exceed the 1.5°C limit unless global emissions became “net negative” (we absorb more CO₂ than we release) after 2040.
