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What is the Global Carbon Budget (GCB)?
Since 2006, the Global Carbon Budget has summed up all anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the atmosphere, and all the carbon removed from the atmosphere by land and ocean. This allows us to account for the rise in atmospheric CO₂, which drives climate warming. It brings together many independent sources of data, including systematic observations and state-of-the-art model ensembles, to provide a robust, independent scientific assessment of CO₂ sources and sinks each year and their associated uncertainties. It tracks changes over time in CO₂ emissions from burning and other uses of fossil fuels (coal, gas, oil; and cement production) and from land use change (e.g., deforestation, reforestation). It also assesses how the Earth’s carbon sinks on the land and oceans are changing over time in response to human activities and climate change (i.e., carbon-climate feedbacks). These data are integrated at global, regional, and national levels, providing a benchmark against which UNFCCC negotiations can take place. The Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming well below 2°C sets the budget for the additional CO₂ that can be added to the atmosphere for this temperature target. The remaining carbon budget diminishes each year, and has direct ramifications for UNFCCC negotiators working to achieve the Paris Agreement goals. The GCB is the most comprehensive carbon budget assessment available, and contributes to assessments and reports by the IPCC and the World Meteorological Organization, in addition to supporting national governments and non-governmental organizations.
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What are the latest results of the GCB?
The GCB is updated annually, with complete data provided up to the previous year , with projections of the current year based on data available at the time the final manuscript is submitted (usually around October).
Here is an extract from the latest press release
Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 – driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict – according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.
The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year.
Emissions from oil are projected to decrease by 1.9% – likely a short-term response to the energy shock triggered by the Iran conflict.
What is the remaining carbon budget?
The remaining carbon budget is the amount of carbon dioxide that can still be emitted while keeping global warming within a certain temperature limit, such as 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The budget for 1.5°C is rapidly diminishing as human emissions from fossil fuels and land-use change continue.
How long until we pass 1.5°C of global warming?
While many temperature records have been broken in recent years , the GCB study focuses on the remaining carbon budget before 1.5°C is consistently breached over multiple years. The remaining carbon budget (the amount of CO2 that can be emitted before warming reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels) is now 150 billion tonnes – equivalent to less than four years of emissions at the current rate.
All such projections have a degree of uncertainty, but it’s clear that the remaining carbon budget is running out fast.
Less than four years is clearly insufficient to decarbonize the world’s energy system. It therefore seems inevitable that the 1.5°C target of the Paris agreement will be breached.
Are we making any progress in reducing emissions?
Decarbonisation of energy systems is progressing but not fast enough to durably secure a peak and decline in global fossil CO2 emissions.
The number of countries reducing their emissions while growing their economies is increasing. 40 economies have decreased their fossil CO2 emissions significantly while growing their economies in the decade 2016-2025, nearly twice as many as during the previous decade (2006-2015; 22 countries).
These 40 countries account for 26% of current global fossil CO2 emissions. Emissions reductions expanded to 59 countries in all continents for the shorter 2019-2025 time period, although not all of these trends are significant.
Avoided emissions from solar and wind power and electric vehicles are projected to grow about 0.5 GtCO2 in 2026, offsetting about two-thirds of the emissions growth from rising energy demand. In 2025, solar and wind power accounted for about 95% of the avoided emissions, in roughly equal proportion.
The effect of electric vehicles is growing rapidly but remains small, because the vehicle stock takes time to turn over, with only about 10% of the car fleet electrified in 2025 (6% excluding non-plug-in hybrids), and far less for vans and trucks. Despite their low numbers, other electric vehicles (mainly buses and trucks in China) account for about 30% of the emissions avoided by EVs, because each replaces a vehicle with much higher fuel use.
To find out more please go to the GCB 2026 page.
Why are wildfires included in the GCB?
In 2023 we included for the first time, analysis on the impacts of wildfires. Wildfires in forests, grasslands, and other ecosystems can be caused by humans or natural processes such as lightning. Wildfires are part of the carbon cycle, and are affected by and affecting Earth’s climate through several mechanisms:
- Release of CO₂ to the atmosphere from the loss of carbon stored in vegetation: since wildfire damages vegetation, it reduces the amount of carbon stored in an ecosystem, taking from a few years to a century or more (depending on where the fire occurs) to recover and reabsorb carbon from the atmosphere. If wildfire returns before the ecosystem has recovered, or if wildfires become more severe, the ecosystem may lose some of its capacity to absorb and store carbon. There is also potential for the release of methane (CH4) if there is incomplete combustion of the organic matter.
- Black carbon (soot) emissions: as fine particulate matter, soot can be carried by the wind over long distances. If deposited on snow or ice, soot can accelerate climate warming by reducing the reflectivity of the ice surface leading to increased absorption of sunlight and accelerated ice melt. It is also a pollutant detriment to human health.
- Nutrient recycling acts to restore carbon sinks: wildfire releases nutrients into the soil from vegetation and animals more quickly than if they had slowly decayed over time. This increases soil fertility and enhances vegetation growth, helping to re-establish the carbon sink. Smoke from wildfires also contains iron and phosphorus, which, when deposited into the ocean, can boost the growth of algae, sequestering large amounts of carbon that could wholly offset the carbon released by the fire in some cases.
- Climate-carbon feedbacks: Climate change is affecting the role of wildfire in the carbon cycle. Rising temperatures, changes in trends and patterns of precipitation and lightning, and faster growth of vegetation due to higher levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are some of the changes that are contributing to an increased likelihood and severity of wildfires. Climate-related changes can also impede post-fire ecosystem recovery and carbon sequestration.
- Wildfire may be reducing the remaining carbon budget overall, and therefore contributing to global warming. However it is not currently possible to fully account for the wildfire-related components in the GCB due to the difficulty of differentiating between fires caused by humans and those of natural causes.
What is Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)? What contribution does CDR make to tackling Climate change?
Anthropogenic carbon dioxide removal (CDR) aims to remove CO₂ from the atmosphere and store it in the biosphere (i.e., vegetation and soils) or permanently in geological reservoirs underground. Examples of biospheric carbon sequestration are afforestation, reforestation, and more general revegetation of other vegetation types. The GCB quantifies this type of CDR in its analysis, looking at CO2 sources and sinks from land use changes, which are purposeful human activities to remove CO₂.
The Global Carbon Budget also includes other CDR methods not based on vegetation (novel CDR), such as direct air capture and storage, and enhanced weathering methods. Novel CDR removals currently offset less than 30 minutes of annual fossil CO₂ emissions and would need to scale up rapidly if they are to play a role in reducing warming levels after exceeding temperature goals.
Although CDR has a role in mitigating climate change, it is not a substitute or distraction from reducing CO₂ emissions, as much and as fast as possible.
To find out more read the full report.
What are natural sinks, and why are they changing?
Natural sinks refer to forests, soils, and oceans that absorb and store CO₂ from the atmosphere. These carbon sinks have increased over time as atmospheric CO₂ levels have increased. However, these natural sinks are also changing due to rising land or ocean temperatures, altered rainfall patterns on land, or changes in large-scale ocean circulation. There is modelling evidence that climate change already reduces the land and ocean sinks making their future contribution to mitigating climate change more uncertain. Taken together, the land and ocean sinks continued to take up around half of anthropogenic CO₂ emitted to the atmosphere, despite the negative impact of climate change.
What is El Niño and how does it impact the land and ocean carbon sinks
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon driven by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically recurring every two to seven years. It arises from a weakening of the trade winds that normally push warm water westward, allowing that warm water to slosh back eastward toward South America. This disruption to the ocean-atmosphere system alters weather patterns across the globe, bringing droughts to some regions and heavy rainfall to others, and its effects can persist for 9–12 months before the system returns to neutral or swings into the opposing La Niña phase.
These temperature and rainfall shifts have profound consequences for carbon cycling. On land, the droughts associated with El Niño — particularly across the Amazon, Southeast Asia, and tropical Africa — suppress photosynthesis and trigger wildfires, sharply reducing the ability of vegetation to absorb CO₂ and releasing large pulses of carbon stored in biomass and soils; the exceptionally strong 1997–98 and 2015–16 El Niño events both produced detectable spikes in atmospheric CO₂ growth rates as a result. In the ocean, the picture is more mixed: the warming of tropical Pacific surface waters suppresses upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich and CO₂-rich deep water, which reduces the amount of carbon the ocean outgasses to the atmosphere in that region, partially offsetting land-based losses. However, reduced nutrient supply also lowers marine productivity, weakening the biological pump that draws carbon into the deep ocean.
The land carbon sink has returned to its pre-El Niño levels after a severe weakening during the 2023-2024 event, with the effect of the current El Niño expected next year.
What is the Global stocktake?
The Global Stocktake (GST) is a process for countries and stakeholders to see where they’re collectively making progress toward meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement and where they are not. The GST is like taking an inventory. It means looking at everything related to where the world stands on climate action and support (e.g. emissions, mitigation, finances, policies, identifying gaps), and working together to chart a better course forward to accelerate climate action.
The 2023 Global Stocktake (GST) concluded that current global climate efforts are not sufficient to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals of limiting warming to 1.5°C. One of the key points was that current climate actions are falling short, and countries must strengthen their climate commitments. This includes a transition away from fossil fuels.
The next Global Stocktake is due in 2028.
What are NDCs?
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) are individual countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and combat climate change. NDCs play a crucial role in the global effort to limit warming to well below 2°C, ideally aiming for 1.5°C, and are essential for tracking progress in climate action.
Each NDC outlines a country’s planned actions and targets for mitigating climate change, reflecting its national circumstances, capabilities, and priorities.
A key aspect of NDCs include emission reduction targets. Countries specify their quantitative targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Many countries have set targets for 2030 and longer term strategies to reach net zero emissions by mid century (often expressed as a percentage reduction from a baseline year).
Under the Paris Agreement, countries should update their NDCs every five years.
GCB @COP 31
The GCB will be presented at a number of events at COP 31:
